El Niño and Catastrophe Risk

El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, impacting temperature, precipitation, and storm patterns worldwide.

A very strong El Niño is currently underway, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates an 83% chance that it will be the strongest event in more than 70 years. Recent headlines about this “historic” and “record-breaking” event have highlighted a wide range of consequences, such as supply chain disruptions, reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, California’s emergency preparations for anticipated flooding and landslides, and growing concerns about El Niño's influence on winter precipitation, extreme heat, wildfire, and other weather-related perils through early 2027.

This webinar will introduce the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, explore the processes driving the current event, and examine how this climate pattern influences US catastrophe perils such as tropical cyclones, wildfires, winter storms, and severe convective storms.